The Light from the East
Jason Thomas - The Light from the East


The Light from the East

July 17, 2023

By: Jason Thomas

本レポートは、カーライルのグローバル・リサーチ責任者であるジェイソン・トーマス(Jason Thomas, Head of Global Research & Investment Strategy)が、日本金融市場の現状および見通しについて、グローバルなステークホルダーや幅広い市場参加者に情報提供する目的で作成したものです。日本のステークホルダー  の皆様にとっても、有益な分析・データセットとしてご参考になれば幸いです。


  • 日本経済の成長は、営業利益に対する高い利回り、超低金利の資金調達コストおよび豊富な事業改善の機会という、日本固有の組み合わせに基づいている。
  • 2022年には、海外金利が上昇する一方で日銀が長期金利の抑制を継続し、大幅な円安が進行した。も っとも、日銀がイールドカーブ・コントロールを緩和ないし廃止することにより、過度な円安は修正されると見込まれる(コンセンサス予測は、ドル円相場で12%程度の円高を想定)。
  • 超低金利環境の継続により、現預金(内部留保)が投資必要額を継続的に上回るなど、日本企業の非効率性を助長した部分もある。一方で、過去10年間に亘り、政策当局者は、ROEの引き上げや非中核事業の切り離しを進めるよう、日本企業に要請してきている。
  • こうした動きが強まる環境下で、日本では、事業運営に対する規律が高まり、上場企業が事業再編や非上場化を通じて企業価値向上を目指す動きが、一層活発化していくと予想される。

Read The Light from the East by Jason Thomas



Jason Thomas is a Managing Director and Head of Global Research & Investment Strategy at Carlyle. Mr. Thomas helps to formulate firmwide investment strategies and serves as the Chief Investment Officer for managed accounts and the economic adviser to the firm’s Global Private Equity and Credit Investment Committees. Prior to joining Carlyle, Mr. Thomas served on the White House staff as Special Assistant to the President and Director for Policy Development at the National Economic Council. In this capacity, Mr. Thomas acted as the primary adviser to the President for public finance. Mr. Thomas received a BA from Claremont McKenna College and an MS and PhD in finance from George Washington University, where he studied as a Bank of America Foundation, Leo and Lillian Goodwin Foundation, and School of Business Fellow. Mr. Thomas has earned the chartered financial analyst designation and is a Financial Risk Manager certified by the Global Association of Risk Professionals.

Economic and market views and forecasts reflect our judgment as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. In particular, forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and may change materially as economic and market conditions change. The Carlyle Group has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these forecasts. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources prepared by other parties, which in certain cases have not been updated through the date hereof. While such information is believed to be reliable for the purpose used herein, The Carlyle Group and its affiliates assume no responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or fairness of such information. References to particular portfolio companies are not intended as, and should not be construed as, recommendations for any particular company, investment, or security. The investments described herein were not made by a single investment fund or other product and do not represent all of the investments purchased or sold by any fund or product. This material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. We are not soliciting any action based on this material. It is for the general information of clients of The Carlyle Group. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual investors.