Carlyle executives share their views and expertise on a range of investment, public policy and economic matters through podcasts, commentaries, policy papers, TV interviews, speeches and presentations.

MARKET COMMENTARY
Oil Market Outlook: Getting Ahead of the Narrative

Despite sizeable increases in crude prices (+50%) and energy industry earnings (+300%) over the past year, capital markets remain skeptical of the industry’s medium-term fundamentals. Brent five-year futures are priced at a 15% discount to spot and energy sector valuations imply little upside for industry earnings. As we argue in our latest Market Commentary paper, capital markets’ skepticism seems founded on a tripartite narrative that doesn’t hold up under close scrutiny. Thanks to…

Despite sizeable increases in crude prices (+50%) and energy industry earnings (+300%) over the past year, capital markets remain skeptical of the industry’s medium-term fundamentals. …

Despite sizeable increases in crude prices (+50%) and energy industry earnings (+300%) over the past year, capital…

Economic Outlook
A European Economy Breathing with Both Lungs

In mid-November, EuroStat announced that euro zone GDP expanded at a 2.5% annual rate in Q3-2017 (+0.6% quarter/quarter). As we argue in this Economic Outlook, this is not a blip but a new trend rate of growth.

In mid-November, EuroStat announced that euro zone GDP expanded at a 2.5% annual rate in Q3-2017 (+0.6% quarter/quarter). As we argue in this Economic Outlook, this is not a blip but a…

In mid-November, EuroStat announced that euro zone GDP expanded at a 2.5% annual rate in Q3-2017 (+0.6% quarter/…

MARKET COMMENTARY
The Liquidity Risk Premium in Corporate Credit

In their new paper, Mark Jenkins and Jason Thomas find that middle-market loans have historically yielded one-third (170bp per year) more than large, bank-syndicated loans due largely to their illiquidity. Consequently, study results suggest that investors with the ability to hold loans to maturity can boost returns by increasing exposure to liquidity risk.

In their new paper, Mark Jenkins and Jason Thomas find that middle-market loans have historically yielded one-third (170bp per year) more than large, bank-…

In their new paper, Mark Jenkins and Jason Thomas find that middle-market loans have…

Economic Outlook
Pessimism’s Pitfalls as an Investment Strategy: The Perils of the “Next Subprime”

Investors, CEOs, and regulators learned from the Great Recession in ways that make the “next subprime” crisis less likely.  Rather than fall prey to elaborate narratives of ruin, or the tendency to expect that the next recession will look like the last one, investors would be better served to focus on conventional risks and opportunities. The best investment strategies will continue to be those that outperform the market in most years rather than those that deliver spectacular returns in one…

Investors, CEOs, and regulators learned from the Great Recession in ways that make the “next subprime” crisis less likely.  Rather than fall prey to elaborate narratives of ruin, or the…

Investors, CEOs, and regulators learned from the Great Recession in ways that make the “next subprime” crisis less…