You Say Goodbye and I Say Hello

Introducing From David’s Desk, a newsletter penned by Carlyle Co-Founder and Co-Chairman David M. Rubenstein and other leaders across our firm. Each edition provides insights on public policy, geopolitics, and other topics in and around Washington, DC. Discover past editions on the series' webpage.
(Please note that this edition of From David's Desk was largely drafted before yesterday's inauguration.)
Since 1789, United States presidential inaugurations have occurred with celestial precision every four years—except for the extra inaugurations due to Presidents dying in office—neither external wars nor an internal civil war have kept the inaugurations from occurring. Until 1937, the planned inaugurations occurred on March 4th of the year following the election. Since then, the inaugurations have occurred at noon on January 20th.
At the inauguration, the president is sworn in by affirming a commitment to uphold the Constitution. The actual affirmation language is contained in the Constitution: “I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will faithfully execute the Office of President of the United States, and will to the best of my ability, preserve, protect and defend the Constitution of the United States.” (Chester Arthur, after reciting this oath, added, “So help me God”, and presidents have continued to add these words.)
Oaths were used in ancient Greece and Rome as a way of affirming loyalty and allegiance. English kings later used them to ensure fealty from their senior leaders. George Washington had used them to ensure loyalty of his senior military leaders during the Revolutionary War, and the first bill he signed as president provided for oaths from senior government officials. But only one oath was mandated in the Constitution, and it was unique. In many other countries, if there is any type of swearing-in ceremony, the commitment is to the country, a ruler, or God, and not a document.
Some elements of the inauguration have changed over the years. The first inauguration occurred in New York, then the capital of the United States. The next two occurred in Philadelphia, the next capital of the US. George Washington was inaugurated in New York and Philadelphia. John Adams was inaugurated in Philadelphia. The capital moved to Washington, DC in 1800, and the fourth inauguration (Jefferson's first) occurred there. To show that he was different than John Adams, thought by some to be a bit of an elitist, Thomas Jefferson walked alone—no horse drawn carriages—from his boarding house to the Capitol for the swearing in ceremony.
That inauguration was notable because it was a transfer of power from one political party (the Federalist) to another (Democratic-Republican). The outgoing president, John Adams, was not happy that his vice president had run against him and won; and presaging an occurrence more than two centuries down the road, Adams left Washington by coach very early on the swearing in date, and did not witness his successor's inauguration. There was no threat of military action or protests by those who were ceding power to another party's leader.
Since the country's early days, the transition from one president to another has been peaceful—even when the transition is from one party to another, or when the transition is between two presidents who do not like each other or even bother to talk to each other that day.
The events of January 6, 2021 did not affect the inauguration two weeks later of President Biden. While President Trump did not attend the inauguration, that fact did not affect the timing or procedures associated with the swearing in.
The peaceful transfer of power is widely considered one of the hallmarks of the American system of government. The military is not used by an outgoing president to preserve his power or used by an incoming president to ensure that the outgoing president leaves peacefully. The military is certainly visible at inaugurations, and was this year, but its role is largely security against unexpected occurrences, and to some extent ceremonial.
The inauguration day events are now fairly standard and predictable. The morning will begin, out of public sight, with movers removing the outgoing president's furnishings and other personal possessions from the White House. The outgoing White House non-career staff may come in to finish any final business that can be completed by noon—or to deal with any natural disaster emergencies that might arise—and then leave with their personal possessions by noon. (Any papers worked on while at the White House are considered government property for presidents and staff, and they must be given to the National Archives if that has not already occurred.)
The career White House staff—the staff which manages the residence, the chefs, waiters, groundskeepers, telephone receptionists, and the military escort officers—are considered non-political appointees and can stay in their positions, unless the new president decides otherwise in time. The residence staff is led by a chief usher. Some presidents keep the prior chief usher, and some want a new person that they might already know, feel comfortable with or just feel will be very loyal and discreet.
The new president's and first lady's personal possessions and clothing are brought to the White House for placement in the house after noon. So, when the new president enters the White House a few hours after the inauguration, the residence is ready for the new president. The Oval Office is also changed during the several hour period between the inauguration and arrival of the new president.
Typically, this means that paintings or photos of the new president's favorite presidents, role models or heroes (and family photos) are on display in the Oval Office, the adjoining private study, and the Cabinet Room when the new president arrives, typically after the Inaugural Parade.
Before the actual inauguration, President Trump and his supporters had a number of celebratory events. There was a donor/supporter reception and fireworks display at Trump National Golf Club in Virginia, a celebration/rally/music performance (with Kid Rock and others) at the Capital One Arena in Washington, and a dinner honoring the new vice president at the National Gallery of Art.
On the night before the inauguration, the president and his family spent that evening, after a reception at the National Building Museum, at Blair House, a series of town houses that together actually have more square footage than the residence of the White House.
Blair House was originally built for Joseph Lovell, an early surgeon general of the Army, and later purchased by Francis Preston Blair, a close friend of President Jackson, so that he could be nearby to advise the president. His son, Montgomery Blair, became Postmaster General under President Lincoln. The house is on Pennsylvania Avenue catty-corner from the White House. The house is under the control of the State Department and is normally used by an administration to house foreign leaders who may be visiting the president. (Until the government purchased the Blair House, foreign leaders stayed at the White House, their respective embassies, or hotels. During World War II, Winston Churchill preferred staying at the White House. Eventually, Mrs. Roosevelt, tired of having Churchill stay at the White House for weeks at a time, persuaded her husband to buy Blair House as a place for foreign leaders to stay.)
On the morning of January 20th, the incoming president went to a brief prayer service at St. John's Church, a small but very historic church directly across Lafayette Square from the White House. The incoming president then returned to Blair House and, at about ten-thirty, left with the incoming first lady to visit the out-going president and first lady.
When relations are at least civil between the two presidents, they and their first ladies will have a brief coffee or tea at the White House and then, a little after eleven, the two presidents and the two first ladies will leave for the Capitol and the swearing-in at noon.
Eisenhower and Truman had a frosty relationship and apparently did not talk much on the trip to the Capitol. The same largely silent ride was apparently the case when Hoover was leaving and Roosevelt was incoming.
Presidents Trump and Biden obviously do not have a warm relationship, but no doubt they had some conversation, even if just casual pleasantries. They have not had many conversations over the years. As noted, they did not talk in 2021, for Trump left Washington without greeting Biden at the White House. (Though Trump did leave the traditional personal note to Biden, whose contents have not been revealed but were said by Biden to be gracious.) Biden did call Trump after Trump was shot and wished him well. And Biden did invite Trump to the White House after the recent election and they apparently had a cordial conversation, so a reasonably pleasant conversation may have occurred in the ride to the Capitol and may well have included a matter in which they have worked on together recently—the return of the Israeli hostages. (This may not have been completely friendly, for both Presidents seem to be taking credit for the agreement.)
When the two presidents and first ladies arrived at the Capitol, they were greeted by congressional leaders and then go to a holding room with the other former presidents. (The other living presidents and first ladies attended. Mrs. Obama did not attend, apparently out of a desire not to see or talk to President Trump.) Then President and Mrs. Trump went to a separate room to make certain everything is in order for the inaugural speech.
The inaugurations have historically been outside of the Capitol, on the east side of the building—i.e., facing the Supreme Court. This changed to the west side of the Capitol with Reagan's first inauguration. For his last inauguration, President Franklin Roosevelt was not in very good health and also due to rationing efforts for World War II, the inauguration was held at the White House. For Reagan's second inauguration, the weather was so cold in Washington that the inauguration was held indoors at the Capitol Rotunda. That occurred again this inauguration, as the bitter cold weather in Washington forced a change of plans to the Capitol Rotunda.
As is customary, religious leaders provided opening invocations. One was given by the Archbishop of New York Timothy Dolan and the other by evangelist and Trump supporter Reverend Franklin Graham, son of long-time evangelist and minister to presidents, Billy Graham.
The vice president-elect was then sworn in by Associate Justice Kavanagh. Then the new president was sworn in by Chief Justice Roberts. The new president then gave his inaugural address. There is no requirement that an inaugural address be given, but Washington started the practice, and every president has followed. (The Constitution actually does require an annual State of the Union report and Washington gave the first one in person. Adams followed suit. Jefferson sent in his writings. Woodrow Wilson revived the practice of giving the update in person.)
President Trump's first inaugural address was one that was a bit downbeat and dystopian. He talked about the need for the “American carnage” to stop now.
Typically, inaugural addresses are more uplifting and uniting. This time, it was expected that the speech will be more in the traditional category.
Inaugural addresses have varied in quality. Some were forgotten minutes after they were delivered, and some have lived on for a century or more. Washington's second inaugural address was the shortest ever given, just 135 words and delivered in Philadelphia.
The longest address was given by William Henry Harrison, who delivered 8,455 words over nearly two hours. Unfortunately, the speech was given during a rainstorm, Harrison caught a cold and died a few weeks later. At the time, it was thought that he died from the aftereffects of speaking in a rainstorm; now it is thought that he probably died from drinking polluted wastewater. Whatever the case, he became the first president to die in office. (Harrison was succeeded by John Tyler, who married late in life, as did one of his sons. To my surprise he had a living grandson who I met in 2022, or 160 years after his grandfather had died.)
Some of the most memorable lines ever uttered publicly in the country were given during inaugural addresses. In his first inaugural address, Lincoln, in an effort to prevent a major war between the states, famously appealed to our better angels by saying, “I am loath to close. We are not enemies, but friends. We must not be enemies. Though passion may have strained it must not break our bonds of affection. The mystic chords of memory, stretching from every battlefield and patriot grave to every living heart and hearthstone all over this broad land, will yet swell the chorus of the Union, when again touched, as surely they will be, by the better angels of our nature.”
In his second inaugural address, trying to begin to heal the nation that had been at war for nearly four years, Lincoln memorably said, “With malice toward none, with charity for all, with firmness in the right as God gives us to see the right, let us strive on to finish the work we are in, to bind up the nation's wounds, to care for him who shall have borne the battle and for his widow and his orphan ~ to do all which may achieve and cherish a just and lasting peace among ourselves and with all nations.”
In his first inaugural address, facing a national calamity but trying to calm the nation, Franklin Delano Roosevelt delivered the immortal words that “the only thing we have to fear is fear itself...”
In my lifetime, perhaps the most memorable words given during an inaugural address were those delivered by President Kennedy, “Ask not what your country can do for you—ask what you can do for your country.”
Almost every inaugural address was written by a speechwriter or series of speechwriters—with the possible exceptions of Jefferson, Lincoln, and Wilson. Some presidents, like Franklin Roosevelt and John Kennedy, tried to have some believe they were the authors, but they were really the editors.
Those days are behind us, and the president is not writing or claiming he is writing the inaugural address.
Those working on President Trump's speech were no doubt hoping to write a few sentences that are remembered a few days, weeks, or years later. But that is a tall order.
For what it is worth, the keys to a notable inaugural address seem to be keeping it short, appealing for unity, asking Americans to pull together and be prepared to sacrifice for the common good, addressing the future and not the past, not addressing specific legislation or executive orders, and appealing at the end for God's help or blessing. (John Kennedy did this best, perhaps by ending with a reference to God, but he made clear that we cannot depend on God to solve our problems: “…with history the final judge of our deeds, let us go forth to lead the land we love, asking His blessing and His help, but knowing that here on earth God's work must truly be our own.”)
After the address, President Biden and Dr. Biden were taken to Joint Base Andrews by helicopter. From there, they flew to Santa Ynez, California on a government plane no longer deemed Air Force One, but one provided as courtesy by the federal government, though certainly approved by President Trump.
President Trump attended a lunch sponsored by the Joint Congressional Committee on the Inaugural Ceremonies at the Capitol with congressional leadership, his cabinet and senior staff, and other senior government and diplomatic officials.
About ninety minutes later, President and Mrs. Trump would normally drive down Pennsylvania Avenue to the White House and enter the reviewing stand for the inaugural parade. Because of the cold weather, the normal parade was cancelled. There was an abbreviated parade at the Capital One Arena, a commercial venue used for sporting events and concerts.
Shortly after the abbreviated parade, President Trump returned to the White House and signed about 100 executive orders, according to early reports. Many of these are orders that he has talked about already, such as those dealing with immigration, deportation, reversals of Biden executive orders on the environment and energy matters, among other subjects. Some may deal with impoundment of funds already appropriated by congress, but President Trump does not want to spend those funds. (Some of these funds were appropriated in the bill President Biden signed a few weeks ago to keep the government open.)
The president is also likely to send the official nominations to his cabinet and subcabinet positions to congress. (The hearings on the nominations can occur—and have been—before the nomination is technically sent to the full senate for a vote.) President Trump will also likely send outlines of his main initial legislative requests—a single bill that will include a budget framework. The framework will have other legislative initiatives that the president would like to have attached to it. These initiatives become part of what is called budget reconciliation. This type of legislation can be approved by majority vote in the house and senate (and thus the sixty votes needed to break a filibuster in the senate will not be required). The Republicans have a 52-47 majority (the new Republican appointed to replace J.D. Vance in the senate has not yet taken his seat)—enough generally to pass legislation not subject to a filibuster.
That evening, the president attended three inauguration balls–the Commander in Chief Ball for military members, Liberty Inaugural Ball for longtime Trump supporters, and Starlight Ball for large donors to the Trump campaign and transition.
This year, the inauguration coincides with the beginning of the World Economic Forum's annual gathering in Davos, Switzerland. The president will not be attending this year—he has attended twice before when president—but will communicate with some of the Davos attendees virtually. It is presumed he will encourage business leaders from all over the world to invest much in the United States.
This is consistent with his pattern of trying to get international business leaders to invest more capital in the United States. A few weeks ago, Masayoshi Son (the founder of SoftBank) announced at Mar-a-Lago his intention to invest $100 billion from his company into the United States over the next four years. And a few days ago, a Dubai-based businessman, Hussain Sajwani, announced at Mar-a-Lago an intention to invest $20 billion in new US data centers.
Just as George Washington began the tradition of an inaugural address, so too did he begin the tradition of a farewell address. And his was likely a more memorable address than any other president's farewell address—maybe because his speechwriters were James Madison and Alexander Hamilton.
Washington had intended to resign after one term, and asked James Madison to write a farewell address. Madison did, but he and Hamilton, among others, persuaded Washington stay for a second term. As his second term was ending, Washington asked Hamilton to prepare a new farewell address, and he did.
But Washington never delivered it in person. It was simply printed in newspapers. Its big news was that Washington would not seek a third term, but he also warned the country about political parties and foreign alliances.
This is actually the best-known address that Washington ever gave as president. And since 1896, each year, on Washington's birthday, a US senator reads the address on the floor of the senate.
Unlike his inaugural address, Washington's farewell address did not become a precedent that all other presidents followed. Although Adams followed many of Washington's precedents, he did not follow that one.
And few presidents did. Andrew Jackson gave one, but no others did in the nineteenth century. In the twentieth century, Truman gave a farewell address and every subsequent president has—obviously with the exception of Kennedy.
None of them had much impact or did much more than describe their accomplishments.
A few days ago, Biden gave his farewell address from the Oval Office, the site some other presidents have used. (George H.W. Bush used West Point; Obama did his from Chicago; Trump did his from the Blue Room at the White House and taped it in advance.)
Biden's speech received attention for his statements that an ultra-wealthy “oligarchy” is taking shape in the United States. Precisely who or what Biden was referring to has not been specified, but many thought he was referring to the extremely wealthy tech business leaders who have become close to President Trump and are advising him.
And what will President Biden do in his retirement, after more than fifty years of government service? At 82, he is the oldest president to leave office.
Former presidents typically focus on earning a living—writing books, making speeches, doing TV and film projects—and raising money for a presidential library/museum/center.
President Biden is interested in getting his library/museum/center organized and funded relatively quickly. (This is compared, for example, to President Obama, whose center is still under construction and for which funding is still being sought. A total of about $2 billion has been, or will be, raised. This will be the first presidential “library” without physical papers—they are all digitized and the National Archives will oversee and care for the actual documents.)
Biden's exact plans are unclear, but a center/museum/library in Philadelphia or Delaware will likely occur and maybe a library and center will be in one place and a museum in another. (This is what Gerald Ford did. His library is in Ann Arbor, Michigan and his museum is in Grand Rapids, Michigan.)
The United States has an unusual procedure when our presidents leave office—they are responsible for raising all of the funding for these centers/museums/libraries. That will not change any time soon. It is a burden for them. (And raising money when a former president is in his eighties is more challenging than when a former president is in his fifties.) They all dread it, but it now comes with the territory, and President Trump is already raising money for his library/museum/center (to be in Florida), and it may be the first one to open while the president is still in office.