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5 Questions for 2022

By: Jason Thomas
5 Questions for 2022

A year ago, it seemed that the only questions that animated investors involved vaccines: how many vials would be manufactured, distributed, and shot into arms in 2021? Knowledge of those statistics, it seemed, would be sufficient to predict financial market and economic outcomes. The virus had other ideas. The global peak in daily cases did not arrive until the pandemic’s third year, after 9 billion vaccine doses had been administered.1

With few observers still entertaining the hope for a clear end date to COVID-19, the most critical questions today revolve around the ways households, businesses, and policymakers continue to adapt to these new realities.

Our latest report from our Head of Global Research Jason Thomas examines five global macroeconomic questions for investors to consider in the year ahead. Review the key themes Jason highlights in the report and download the full report below.

5 Questions for 2022

Should Investors Beware of a Policy Boomerang?

Question 1

Source: This is based on the IMF estimate of the change in the structural deficits. IMF, October 2021 WEO Database.

Who Will Emerge as the Winners of Digital Transformation?

Question 2

Source: Carlyle, BEA, December 2021. There is no guarantee any trends will continue.

Can Tech Valuations Mistake Form for Substance?

Question 3

Source: Carlyle Analysis; CRSP Database. There is no guarantee any trends will continue.

How Temporary is China’s Deceleration?

Question 4

Source: Carlyle, IMF DOTS; Bloomberg; China General Administration of Customs; January 2022.

Could Credit Markets’ Resilience Defy Skeptics?

Question 5

Source: Carlyle Analysis of S&P LCD Database and BAML Data, January 2022.

Read 5 Questions for 2022 by Jason Thomas

DOWNLOAD THE REPORT

ABOUT THE EXPERT

Jason Thomas is the Head of Global Research at The Carlyle Group, focusing on economic and statistical analysis of Carlyle portfolio data, asset prices and broader trends in the global economy. He is based in Washington, DC. Mr. Thomas serves as Economic Adviser to the firm’s corporate Private Equity, Real Estate and Credit Investment Committees. His research helps to identify new investment opportunities, advance strategic initiatives and corporate development, and support Carlyle investors. Prior to joining Carlyle, Mr. Thomas was Vice President, Research at the Private Equity Council. Prior to that, he served on the White House staff as Special Assistant to the President and Director for Policy Development at the National Economic Council. In this capacity, Mr. Thomas served as primary adviser to the President for public finance. Mr. Thomas received a BA from Claremont McKenna College and an MS and PhD in finance from George Washington University, where he studied as a Bank of America Foundation, Leo and Lillian Goodwin Foundation, and School of Business Fellow. Mr. Thomas has earned the chartered financial analyst designation and is a Financial Risk Manager certified by the Global Association of Risk Professionals.

1Source: Our World in Data

Economic and market views and forecasts reflect our judgment as of the date of this presentation and are subject to change without notice. In particular, forecasts are estimated, based on assumptions, and may change materially as economic and market conditions change. The Carlyle Group has no obligation to provide updates or changes to these forecasts. Certain information contained herein has been obtained from sources prepared by other parties, which in certain cases have not been updated through the date hereof. While such information is believed to be reliable for the purpose used herein, The Carlyle Group and its affiliates assume no responsibility for the accuracy, completeness or fairness of such information. References to particular portfolio companies are not intended as, and should not be construed as, recommendations for any particular company, investment, or security. The investments described herein were not made by a single investment fund or other product and do not represent all of the investments purchased or sold by any fund or product. This material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any security in any jurisdiction where such an offer or solicitation would be illegal. We are not soliciting any action based on this material. It is for the general information of clients of The Carlyle Group. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual investors.